The Election Called Cricket!

There is a reason why it is called ‘Test’ cricket. Because it tests you. Not once but twice. Because to succeed here you need to be good. Good twice over. And good over five days, at least mostly. It tests you because you cannot get away easily with chinks in your armour, either technical or mental. Test cricket finds you out. It also negates an inspired spell or a lucky drop. It exposes your skills to the rough and tumble that the opposition flings at you. There is as they say no hiding place in a test match.

The flipside is also true. Tests also give you an opportunity to come back post a tepid spell or a series of unlucky play and miss. It provides you with a chance to comeback post a listless session and create, seize and optimize an opportunity. To overcome temporary setbacks and bounce back strongly. There is as they say no hiding place in a test match.

You can’t get away with rules of limited bouncers as in a LoI. You can’t get away with field restrictions as in a LoI. You can’t breathe easy coz the nemesis of a bowler has finished his quota in a LoI. You can’t win without taking wickets; economy can’t be par for the course like in a LoI. Test call for technique and temperament and the same is needed to be showcased consistently over a long long period with no handicap awarded to you by the rules as in a LoI. There is as they say no hiding place in a test match.

What applies to test matches applies to elections in India. If one were to draw a parallel, as in Cricket so in Election, there exists three predominant formats. T20, ODI and Tests. Local bodies, Assembly and Parliament. Even you and indeed I, if we are reasonably popular in our locality can win an election in the friendly neighbourhood ward. More than Parties and ideologies, the accessibility of the local representative often decides which way we vote in local body elections. Of course this is one reason many parties co-opt people who are popular at the mohalla level. Once the geography spreads to an assembly segment the game changes. Your mohalla level popularity is simply too miniscule to influence a larger spread of landmass and masses. Enter organized Political parties and career politicians. Imagine the scale! An assembly segment might consist of a territory spread over anything between 50-100 wards or maybe more. (Panchayats in rural constituencies). The time, effort and economies of scale are loaded against an individual. The niche marketer stops to matter and the mass marketer takes over. The one with a better distribution spread and a suitable marketing budget edges you out. If you though this is the end, nyet! There is this much larger scale of a Parliamentary Constituency. If an assembly were to comprise of 50+ wards, a parliamentary constituency comprises of 6-7 assembly segments! As the scale increases, the skills required to win also are doubly tested. Not only is it a question of one’s own popularity and the ability to manage the constituency, the uncontrollable factors like the ideology of the party you represent, the popularity of the leadership, its performance and the strength, weakness of the opposition etc., have a bearing beyond the individual. Reason why very few Independents make it to assemblies. Reason why very few regional parties make it to the parliament in numbers enough to form the Union Govt on their own. There is as they say no hiding place in a Test match.

 

Adrenalin!

This finally brings us to the essential point behind the above sermon. The recent enthusiasm in the BJP about winning a few constituencies in the Kerala Assembly Elections. For those who came in late, Kerala is possibly the last among large Indian states which has never elected a BJP candidate to the Assembly or for that matter to the Parliament. In states where BJP has been traditionally weak like Tamilnadu or West Bengal, BJP found some traction piggybacking on alliance partners with mainline regional parties, a luxury denied to them in Kerala. The reason for the enthusiasm among the BJP cadres this time around is due to the fact that they have, in company of some ragtag caste based parties performed creditably in the local body elections. Not a Pan Kerala phenomenon but certain pockets where they have surprised many a voter, political opponents, pollsters and indeed themselves with their performance! This has injected booster shots of   adrenaline in the nervous system of the BJP party machinery in the state. However adrenaline can only get you that far and no further. This is not a T20 match! Lotus will not bloom in Kerala this time around too. It will never bloom in Kerala, not until you build a team with players with technique and temperament which can showcase the same consistently, over five days, at least mostly!  There is as they say no hiding place in a Test match.

But Kerala won't dance saala!

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

PS: How many more electoral losses does O.Rajagopal require to enter the Guinness Book of Records?

Guinness Calling?

Glossary:

Mohalla : Locality/Neighbourhood

The Election Managers

Elections are not won by cadres. Just as fans are not the reason behind a film becoming a blockbuster. Let me give you an example. Take the much hyped and supposedly very successful drive by the BJP to enlist members through a ‘Missed Call’ campaign. The drive has apparently succeeded in enlisting 1 Crore new members for the party. Supposing the numbers spouted are indeed correct, what does it mean? In a country of 1.26 Billion people, assuming 50% of them are voters and further assuming an average of 66% polling which was the number, a record number, achieved during the 2014 General Elections it converts to less than 2.5% in actual votes! (For those who came in late, the present Govt of India was voted in with the largest majority in terms of seats in recent times on the back of 31% Votes share!) Similarly if the fans were the reason behind the success of a film what explains flops of even superstar films? A political party’s success at the hustings and a popular star’s success at box office is a result of what would be described as preference of unaffiliated voters or moviegoers.

So what use Cadres/Fans? Can we discount them? Yes, at our own peril. Cadres are important, very important. They are what is described as ‘party machinery’ or ‘foot soldiers’. People who cover the proverbial last mile to connect with the voters. Propagate the party’s achievements and enthuse the unaffiliated millions to remain connected with the party. Or take to the very same unaffiliated voters the wrongdoing of the ruling party and campaign to persuade the voter to switch sides. During non-election times, the cadres assist the party in keeping the voters sufficiently involved and enthused for the future appointment with the EVMs. Fans similarly bring in what in film trade parlance is called the ‘initial’. The box office takings over the initial weekend which often decides the trajectory if not the fate of the film. And during the periods when there is no release of the star’s film, they keep the star ‘alive’ in various forums to keep the enthusiasm going. (If you are a Star who has political ambitions, these fans act as the initial launch pads. Ask MGR, Jayalalitha, Vijaykanth and other ‘stars’ that are dime a dozen in the electoral landscape of the ancient land of Tamilnadu. Andhra/Telengana finishes a close runner up. Welcome!)

During my decade+ long stay in Kolkata, witness to multiple elections, never have I been more aware of the importance the cadres bring to the table for a political party, more so during the election season. From campaigning to organising ‘record attendance’ during the rallies, to being booth agents, to arrange transport of the voters to the polling booth and more. The nuts and bolts of fighting elections. The last mile. The real Election Managers. To give you an easier example to understand their importance, imagine you own a great TV channel whose programming is best in the world but none of the cable operators carry it to the viewers’ TV set! Or a great product but no sales team to reach it to the customers. Cadres are the cable operators and the sales team. The most important conduits that connects you to your consumers. 

Bengalis reading this would instantly connect with the services the cadres provide, especially given the frequent, almost routine complaints of ‘rigging or booth capturing’ one hears about elections in West Bengal. If you think, booth capturing is all about cadres just walking into the polling stations and stamping every ballot on the symbol of their own party while the hapless voters stares agape, all I can say is, Bollywood has spoiled you! ‘Rigging’ or ‘Booth Capturing’ let me assure you is a science. And it goes beyond its Bollywood portrayal of it. 

Maha Michil! A day in a cadre's life!

Winning elections start with the very start which is by providing good governance. Since this is something alien to most governments in India, it then becomes imperative to ‘manage’ the elections. Enter the foot soldiers. First of all an ‘environment’ is created and this exercise starts long before the elections are announced. Supporters of the opposition parties are sought to be won over by allurements or threats. Failing which many must disappear. The writ must run!

The polling day starts with booth jamming. The supporters are told to arrive the earliest to the polling station, cast vote first and ‘reserve’ places in the queue for the other supporters. If the polling station is in a locality which your experience says doesn’t support your party, the early birds go through the process slowly, slowly, slooowly so that the supporters of the other party can’t reach the polling officer within the stipulated hours of voting or far lesser than expected do.

Lal Salaam!

Once inside the polling station, the agents resort to objections. In booths which are hostile to your party, every voters antecedents are questioned, random objections raised, documents asked to be checked and rechecked so that the time consumed per voter increases and many if not most voters tired of the queue decide to either postpone their voting to a later hour or simply drop the idea in exchange of the blockbuster on TV! (The objections used to start with accusations of impersonation which has since been hit for a mighty six by the Election Commission. An EPIC win for the voter and the EC!)

EPIC WIN!

 

Another genius invention of managing the booth is the effective use of Peto. For those who came in late Peto is a crude but low intensity bomb which is hurled near or outside the polling booths to scare away the voters from the polling booth/queue. Since Petos are manufactured in the unorganized sector, its impact varies from a Diwali Phataka to that of a fully loaded suicide bomber. Insiders know that peto once it is dropped in the close vicinity of a polling booth, leaves behind a loud ‘boom’ and hopefully nothing else which of course scares away the bhodrolok and bhodromohilas from the queue and gets them scooting so that the opposition has that many fewer votes.

Peto!

I have also heard of the doors of the houses of the ‘sympathisers’ of the opposition are often locked from outside thereby either delaying or denying them completely the chance to vote against you! While I have been a witness to the modus oparandi behind booth management techniques mentioned above, I must confess I have never been locked in on polling day. Given that I am no longer a voter in West Bengal, chances of my experiencing the same has diminished by a big Dindigul!

Once the dust settles over the hustings, the results are declared, victory rallies are held, it is business as usual for the cadres belonging to the victorious party. The cadres of the losing candidate meanwhile drop everything and start exploring the possibilities of joining the victorious party!

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PS: Not that I condone the violence but I found it quiet ridiculous to see the Baamponthi playing victims to TMC’s ‘terror tactics’ in the ongoing West Bengal Polls. TMC like a good student is after all following the well laid practices of the Left over the 34 years of their rule in Bengal!

Glossary:

Bhodralok/Bhadramohila : Gentlemen/Ladies

Dindigul : City in Tamilnadu famous for manufacture of Locks!

Baamponthi : Leftists

Phataka : Firecracker

Those who read this also visit:
The Mother, The Scholar and The Captain!l

The Mother, The Scholar & The Captain

Any note on the forthcoming Assembly polls in Tamilnadu must, absolutely must start with a word of kudos to the efforts put in by the Election Commission to inform, promote and popularise the Right and the Duty of the electorate to exercise their franchise. No media outlet has been left unexplored, indeed been fully exploited to achieve the utopian target of “Nooru sadavidham” as the popular slogan goes! To the election commission goes the Man of the Match award even before the game has started. Now it is up to the electorates to score that century!

                                                                   

May 16th, 100 Sadavidham!

                                                                     

Tamilnadu elections, more than any other state in India is all about personality, to the extent it almost borders on being Presidential. Personality driven elections in Tamilnadu predates even “Indira is India, India is Indira” nationally.  From Aringnar Anna to M.G.Ramachandran to M.K.Karunanidhi  to J.Jayalalitha, elections are won and lost because you are either for or against the leader. The quip “Even a lamp post can win on a Congress ticket” during India’s initial days of experiments with the ballot box post Independence was given a fillip in Tamilnadu under the above mentioned stalwarts. To a large extent the scenario continues to dominate. Unless the candidate in question is universally unpopular, he/she is most likely to sail through or bite the dust not because of her/his standing or abilities but due to how the “Thalaivar/Thalaivi” is perceived at the time of punching the button on the EVM. And this shows no signs of abating in the near future either.

The other area where Tamilnadu has been the harbinger is the rise of regional parties which hardly have a footprint outside the borders of the state. Ever since the DMK drubbed the Congress in ’67, the state has been alternatively ruled by one or the other regional parties. From its initial role of being the kingmakers, Congress and subsequently all other ‘National’ parties have been reduced to being footnotes. The sprouting of a plethora of smaller regional parties making these ‘National’ parties mere ‘notional’ parties in the state.  

I, Me, Myself!

As time moved along, Tamilnadu elections have stopped being only about personalities. The recent elections can be aptly described as being all about alliances and appliances! The dictum the whole being bigger than  the sum of its parts was possibly perfected by the leading Dravidian parties in Tamilnadu. The multitude of political parties with various levels of influence geographically or among caste and religious divides are co-opted in the belief that all other parameters being equal, 2+1+1/2+1/4 = 234! (234 is the number of seats in the Tamilnadu Assembly you dummkopf. Welcome!)

Regional Parties! Just a glimpse!

                                                    

The problem with arithmetic is that it can be duplicated. Also the breakaway factions among the political parties neutralized the arithmetic to a large extent as rival factions allied with rival camps! This led to the evolution of the next big idea to woo the voter. While freebies have always been in the backdrop of any Indian election, the freebie was usually food (Rice/Wheat/Take your pick) or a leg up for food production (free power to farmers etc.). In a first of its sort Tamilnadu added Colour Television among ‘necessities’ and offered it free to electorates! Soon Mixies, Fans, Laptops, Jewellery were added to the list and it has become a virtual free for all ever since! One wonders which among Smartphones, Refrigerators, Washing Machines, Dishwashers and Microwaves will make it to the manifestos this time around!

Kalaignar and 'Sonrise'?

#TNElections2016 is unique because after nearly three decades the polls are going to witness a multi cornered contests. In the blue corner is Amma fighting a ‘I,Me, Myself  vs the Rest’ contest. In the Red corner is her rival since eons, Kalaignar, the Nonagenarian leader desperate for his ‘Sonrise’, with Congress and some loose change parties for company. Waiting in the wings, hoping to get a toehold is a ragtag coalition of parties with more leaders than followers led by a Captain who is likely to traverse the entire road from being a possible kingmaker to wannabe king and despite the public bravado, praying he doesn’t end up a spoiler with no spoils. And finally there is this faceless, friendless, ally-less, leaderless party among the also-rans which is likely to end up with Participation Certificate! I refer to the same party which incidentally heads the Federal Govt of The Union of India!

   

I am no psephologist. And if you were expecting me to predict the outcome of the elections in this note, I am happy to disappoint you. All I can say here is I hope the election commission wins. And more importantly, with apologies to Ravi Shastri, I pray whoever wins, at the end of the day Tamilnadu will be the real winner!

The Real Winner Please!

                                                                

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PS: These parties are also fighting an election in the neighbouring Pondicherry which must right now be feeling like Rahul Dravid!

Glossary:

Nooru Sadavidham : 100%

Aringnar Anna : Sobriquet bestowed on C.K.Annadurai. Literal meaning Knowledgeable Elder Brother.

Amma: Popular nickname of TN CM J.Jayalalitha meaning Mother.

Kalaignar: Popular Nickname of former CM of TN, M.K.Karunanidhi meaning Artist/Scholar

Thalaivar/Thalaivi : Leader

Delhi Deconstructed

BJP

From time immemorial the detergent powder market in India meant Surf, Surf and virtually nobody else. This giant of a brand from Unilever then called Hindusthan Lever was a virtual monopoly in the branded detergent  powder segment to the extent it became generic. Old timers among us would remember that even me-toos and wanna-bes could not break away from the Surf mould let alone compete. Even the colour of the detergent was generic, a pale blue 'Surf" colour. A cushy HLL laughing all the way to the bank in a bubble of its own. All this till the late '80s. And then the inevitable happened. A small town entrepreneur named Karsan Bhai Patel launched his homegrown concoction of a detergent powder with an atrocious packaging named after his daughter. And yellow in colour! Nirma! Backed by a promise of 'doodh si safedi' and a catchy jingle and priced at 1/4th of the Surf, Nirma gobbled Surf's marketshare and went on to become a leader in many a market and big enough to threaten Surf's leadership position. Old timers among us would remember the irony when consumers asked for ' Nirmawala Surf dena!' Replace Surf with BJP and Nirma with AAP and you would possibly understand the voters verdict in the just concluded elections for the Delhi Assembly. Overconfidence almost bordering on arrogance against a fleet footed start up which refused to play by the existing market rules torpedoed the well entrenched leader. BJP's last minutes tactics of bringing in new faces, lewd and negative campaign almost mirrored HLL's tactics of reducing prices, launching a mega negative campaign (Whiteness or burnt hands) etc and which like BJP's campaign failed to find traction with the consumers. Well done Nirma, well done AAP!

Arrogant Market leaders, Beware!

Will Wheel apply the brakes?

It is rumored that there exists a secret book in the Unilever Headquarters in Rotterdam, Netherlands which is an encyclopedia of every marketing skirmish it has faced in every market in the world. The company dug deep into the same and is supposed to have pulled out a strategy to compete versus Nirma. A strategy already applied in markets similar to India facing a similar David vs Goliath war. HLL launched a new brand Wheel in the Nirma segment and priced it just a tad higher than the upstart to kill Nirma's biggest USP, price. Promoted as a 'better detergent at affordable price' to take Nirma head on, Wheel gradually turned the tables on the newbie. While Wheel indulged in the market warfare on the price platform and flanked Surf, the latter was given a complete makeover with new packaging and a 'superior' positioning to regain its primacy by creating the premium segment which was targeted at the upwardly mobile middle class which the then recently liberalized Indian economy threw up. And there in lies the lessons for BJP to bounce back post the pasting it has received in Delhi. Go back to its core promise, the secret book, which made the Indian electorates give it massive majority in the last general election. (Link here Dear Sri Narendra Modi!)

Will Surf 'Excel' again?

AAP

One of the greatest marketing fiascos ever indulged in by any company happened in '85 when Coca Cola, hold your breath, changed the recipe of its flagship aerated drink. So uproarious was the reaction and rejection from the consumers that it is said that this led to Pepsi taking leadership position in the North American market for the very first time in the history of the Cola Wars. To cut the story short, Coke quickly went back to its original recipe and post one of the costliest marketing campaigns ever went back to where it always was, leadership. Nothing works with consumers better than a responsive brand. A sincere apology to the electorates for the mistake of the '49 day government' fiasco has indeed worked wonders for brand AAP. Now AAP has the tougher task at hand. Apologising for the mistake was akin to bringing back the original Coke recipe. Delivering the 'always Coca Cola' promise is the task now. It doesn't take the consumer time to switch brands preferences again.

Recipe is back. Will it 'refresh' again?

Congress

I had written on the challenges the Congress faces earlier. To cut the story short Suffices if I just replug the same again here!


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

PS: Over to Bihar now. Will BJP stick to its 'Secret Book' or can the arithmetic of JDU+RJD+INC do a  Nirma? Watch this space!

Glossary :
doodh si safedi : Whiteness like milk
Nirmawala Surf dena : Give me Surf named Nirma

What ails INC!

The spate of election defeats in the recent and not so recent past both at state levels as well as Centre has reduced the once behemoth like Indian National Congress to the levels of also-rans in most of the political map of India. Suffices to say that there has to be something more than just anti incumbency at work here. For a party which much to everyone's surprise sent the NDA govt packing in '04 and then surprised everyone again by retaining power at the Centre in the past decade, it is indeed a sad commentary to be reduced to 44 seats in the Lok Sabha. All this boils down to one question, What ails Indian National Congress (INC)?

Obsolete like cyclostyling?

INC today faces some of its toughest days ahead. A brand which started off as a virtual monopoly at the time of independence, its current status where its very relevance is questioned is a story worth telling. It is not that INC has lost its relevance, it still enjoys a substantial voteshare pan India and its core values of development of all, including the last man is still a work in progress in this country. To give you an analogy, INC does not find itself where Cyclostyling Machines or Electronic Typewriters find themselves, obsolete due to the advancement of technology. What ails INC primarily is brand fatigue. An example of how some of the oldest brands have tackled fatigue is Uniliver and its brand Lux. Lux from time immemorial has been promoted as a beauty soap. Remember the famous tagline 'Filmy sitaron ka saundarya saabun'? Where Lux has been different is through constant churn of  'New faces' to endorse the brand it has positioned itself as a contemporary brand without losing its core values. INC needs to rejuvenate itself with programmes which will make it contemporary and find traction with new voters.

Youth, Icon or Youth Icon?

The other issue which INC seems to have missed sight of is what is called the 'Young India'. Given the demographics, India populace is nearest to what the Americans once called themselves, the Baby Boomers. Voters who are of the post libaralization era, aspirational, ambitious and in a tearing hurry. The INC from an unaffiliated voter's perspective appears to be steeped in the License-quota-Subsidy era while the voters have moved on. While a well targeted subsidy scheme still has an important place in Indian society steeped in inequality, the presentation of just this aspect without appearing to address the concerns of the youth of India has led to a disconnect with the largest growing segment among Indian Voters, the middle class. A possible way to crack this issue, one may look at Pepsi. Pepsi has positioned itself against a well entrenched Coke through what is known as 'Youth' platform. And has gone about recruiting brand ambassadors who the target consumers are attracted to. The difference is Pepsi has dropped stars like Sachin Tendulkar, Shah Rukh Khan and the likes to latch on to the next youth icon on the horizon, Dhoni to Kohli and Ranbir Kapoor. All this while, the fact remains Tendulkar and Khan are still some of the biggest draws in India, the only hitch, they are no longer 'youth'. INC needs to reiterate its commitment to all sections of the voters, young and middle class included by churning out programmes of their concern too in a language which is less of a sermon and more 'Happening'. And age of the leadership is a non issue. Remember Rahul Gandhi is lot younger than Narendra Modi and yet the voters endorsed the later overwhelmingly.

Who is the next Regional Manager?

Any marketer worth his pay check will tell you that a strong distribution is a key to acquire/gain/improve/retain marketshare. A robust team spread across the length and breadth of the market delivering superior services at the convenience of the customer makes successful brands. While a product may face competition from a 'me-too', a well oiled delivery mechanism helps reach more customers and create entry barriers for the 'me-too'. While start ups like Kavin Care innovate with products and packaging, the larger MNCs copy the same and go national in no time. Distribution to a political party is the organization at grassroot level, in electoral terms at booth level. When was the last time you heard of an INC win due to this strength. Today it is the BJP which is making more noise in its attempt to enroll new members while being in power in half of India and at the Centre! The other part of the market infrastructure is the regional/state level leadership. In markets where you lose ground, it is difficult to regain the market share without a Regional Manager/ Zonal Manager who can stem the rot, regroup the team, strategize and  push forward its agenda of becoming market leader again. It is not as difficult as it appears. Remember despite BJP retaining power in Gujrat three times spread over a decade, INC still enjoys a 40%+ voteshare in the state. One well thought out, well coordinated push and INC could be back in power in Gandhinagar. A 5% swing towards INC might end in a windfall for it in a two horse race.

No longer top of the mind!

The last thing INC would hope is for the ennui to set in deep. Remember Lacto Calamine? The once market leader in the skin care segment is now rarely visible on the shelves replaced as it is by newer enterants. While brands like Surf/Wheel took on the upstarts like Nirma to flower further, Lacto Calamine is no longer the top of the mind brand in its core segment. When INC doesn't fight back, regional/local parties occupy the space vacated by it. The old market dictum is that the No.1 and No.2 brands are in the reckoning for spoils and No.3 and others make up the numbers. It has happened to INC in many a state, could well happen in others!


Finally as yet another market dictum goes, marketshare doesn't  come easily. It calls for single minded approach like that of a rifle and patience of a vulture!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 PS: The other way for INC to come back to relevance is by allowing BJP to commit enough mistakes and wait for the anti-establishment votes!

Glossary:

Filmy sitaron ka saundarya saabun : Beauty Soap of Filmstars!